Open AccessSeasonality of influenza and its association with meteorological parameters in two cities of Pakistan: A time series analysis
Author(s) -
Nadia Nisar,
Nazish Badar,
Uzma Bashir Aamir,
Aashifa Yaqoob,
Jaya Prasad Tripathy,
Chinmay Laxmeshwar,
Fariha Munir,
Syed Sohail Zahoor Zaidi
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0219376
Subject(s) - seasonality , outbreak , geography , seasonal influenza , subtropics , temperate climate , incidence (geometry) , precipitation , climatology , veterinary medicine , demography , environmental science , meteorology , covid-19 , biology , medicine , virology , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , ecology , mathematics , geometry , pathology , sociology , geology
Background Influenza is known to have a specific pattern of seasonality the reasons for which are yet to be fully ascertained. Temperate zones show influenza epidemic during the winter months. The tropical and subtropical regions show more diverse influenza outbreak patterns. This study explores the seasonality of influenza activity and predicts influenza peak based on historical surveillance time series data in Islamabad and Multan, Pakistan. Methods This is a descriptive study of routinely collected monthly influenza sentinel surveillance data and meteorological data from 2012–16 in two sentinel sites of Pakistan: Islamabad (North) and Multan (Central). Results Mean number of cases of influenza and levels of precipitation were higher in Islamabad compared to Multan. Mean temperature and humidity levels were similar in both the cities. The number of influenza cases rose with decrease in precipitation and temperature in Islamabad during 2012–16, although the same cannot be said about humidity. The relationship between meteorological parameters and influenza incidence was not pronounced in case of Multan. The forecasted values in both the cities showed a significant peak during the month of January. Conclusion The influenza surveillance system gave a better understanding of the disease trend and could accurately forecast influenza activity in Pakistan.