Open AccessPredicting aquatic development and mortality rates of Aedes aegypti
Author(s) -
Josef Zapletal,
Himanshu Gupta,
Madhav Erraguntla,
Zach N. Adelman,
K.M. Myles,
Mark Lawley
Publication year - 2019
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0217199
Subject(s) - aedes aegypti , chikungunya , dengue fever , larva , zika virus , biology , aedes , range (aeronautics) , pupa , aquatic ecosystem , mortality rate , yellow fever , toxicology , statistics , environmental science , ecology , virus , mathematics , demography , virology , materials science , composite material , sociology
Mosquito-borne pathogens continue to be a significant burden within human populations, with Aedes aegypti continuing to spread dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus throughout the world. Using data from a previously conducted study, a linear regression model was constructed to predict the aquatic development rates based on the average temperature, temperature fluctuation range, and larval density. Additional experiments were conducted with different parameters of average temperature and larval density to validate the model. Using a paired t-test, the model predictions were compared to experimental data and showed that the prediction models were not significantly different for average pupation rate, adult emergence rate, and juvenile mortality rate. The models developed will be useful for modeling and estimating the upper limit of the number of Aedes aegypti in the environment under different temperature, diurnal temperature variations, and larval densities.