Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic | Zendy

Maria BekkerNielsen Dunbar | Zendy; Thomas Finnie | Zendy; Barney Sloane | Zendy; Ian Hall | Zendy

Open Access

Methods for calculating credible intervals for ratios of beta distributions with application to relative risks of death during the second plague pandemic

Author(s) -

Maria BekkerNielsen Dunbar,

Thomas Finnie,

Barney Sloane,

Ian Hall

Publication year - 2019

Publication title -

plos one

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99

H-Index - 332

ISSN - 1932-6203

DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0211633

Subject(s) - plague (disease) , pandemic , yersinia pestis , statistics , bayesian probability , credible interval , relative risk , covid-19 , epidemic model , mathematics , confidence interval , medicine , biology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , environmental health , genetics , disease , pathology , virulence , gene , population

Employing historical records we are able to estimate the risk of premature death during the second plague pandemic, and identify the Black Death and pestis secunda epidemics. We show a novel method of calculating Bayesian credible intervals for a ratio of beta distributed random variables and use this to quantify uncertainty of relative risk estimates for these two epidemics which we consider in a 2 × 2 contingency table framework.

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