Open AccessPrediction of BMI at age 11 in a longitudinal sample of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study
Author(s) -
Hanna Christiansen,
Stephanie Brandt,
Viola Walter,
Martin Wabitsch,
Dietrich Rothenbacher,
Hermann Brenner,
Benno G. Schimmelmann,
Oliver Hirsch
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0182338
Subject(s) - body mass index , overweight , obesity , demography , medicine , cohort , structural equation modeling , gerontology , pediatrics , statistics , mathematics , sociology
Obesity is one of the greatest public health challenges in the world with childhood prevalence rates between 20–26% and numerous associated health risks. The aim of the current study was to analyze the 11-year follow-up data of the Ulm Birth Cohort Study (UBCS), to identify whether abnormal eating behavior patterns, especially restrained eating, predict body mass index (BMI) at 11 years of age and to explore other factors known to be longitudinally associated with it. Of the original UBCS, n = 422 children (~ 40% of the original sample) and their parents participated in the 11-year follow-up. BMI at age 8 and 11 as well as information on restrained eating, psychological problems, depressive symptoms, lifestyle, and IQ at age 8 were assessed. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was used to predict children’s BMI scores at age 11. PLS-SEM explained 68% of the variance of BMI at age 11, with BMI at age 8 being the most important predictor. Restrained eating, via BMI at age 8 as well as parental BMI, had further weak associations with BMI at age 11; no other predictor was statistically significant. Since established overweight at age 8 already predicts BMI scores at age 11 longitudinally, obesity interventions should be implemented in early childhood.