Open AccessSpatio-temporal patterns of gun violence in Syracuse, New York 2009-2015
Author(s) -
David A. Larsen,
Sandra D. Lane,
Timothy Jennings-Bey,
Arnett Haygood-El,
Kim Brundage,
Robert A. Rubinstein
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0173001
Subject(s) - gun violence , poisson regression , geography , poison control , demography , injury prevention , epidemiology , occupational safety and health , environmental health , cartography , criminology , medicine , population , psychology , sociology , pathology
Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009–2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8% increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted.