Open AccessIncremental Predictive Value of Serum AST-to-ALT Ratio for Incident Metabolic Syndrome: The ARIRANG Study
Author(s) -
Dhananjay Yadav,
Eun Hee Choi,
Song Vogue Ahn,
Soon Koo Baik,
Youn Zoo Cho,
Sang Baek Koh,
Ji Hye Huh,
Yoosoo Chang,
Ki Chul Sung,
Jang Young Kim
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
plos one
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.99
H-Index - 332
ISSN - 1932-6203
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pone.0161304
Subject(s) - metabolic syndrome , quartile , medicine , odds ratio , confidence interval , population , cohort , cohort study , gastroenterology , alanine aminotransferase , obesity , environmental health
Aims The ratio of aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is of great interest as a possible novel marker of metabolic syndrome. However, longitudinal studies emphasizing the incremental predictive value of the AST-to-ALT ratio in diagnosing individuals at higher risk of developing metabolic syndrome are very scarce. Therefore, our study aimed to evaluate the AST-to-ALT ratio as an incremental predictor of new onset metabolic syndrome in a population-based cohort study. Material and Methods The population-based cohort study included 2276 adults (903 men and 1373 women) aged 40–70 years, who participated from 2005–2008 (baseline) without metabolic syndrome and were followed up from 2008–2011. Metabolic syndrome was defined according to the harmonized definition of metabolic syndrome. Serum concentrations of AST and ALT were determined by enzymatic methods. Results During an average follow-up period of 2.6-years, 395 individuals (17.4%) developed metabolic syndrome. In a multivariable adjusted model, the odds ratio (95% confidence interval) for new onset of metabolic syndrome, comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile of the AST-to-ALT ratio, was 0.598 (0.422–0.853). The AST-to-ALT ratio also improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for predicting new cases of metabolic syndrome (0.715 vs. 0.732, P = 0.004). The net reclassification improvement of prediction models including the AST-to-ALT ratio was 0.23 (95% CI: 0.124–0.337, P<0.001), and the integrated discrimination improvement was 0.0094 (95% CI: 0.0046–0.0143, P<0.001). Conclusions The AST-to-ALT ratio independently predicted the future development of metabolic syndrome and had incremental predictive value for incident metabolic syndrome.