Open AccessEstimating chikungunya virus transmission parameters and vector control effectiveness highlights key factors to mitigate arboviral disease outbreaks
Author(s) -
Frédéric Jourdain,
Henriette de Valk,
Harold Noël,
Marie-Claire Paty,
Grégory L’Ambert,
Florian Franke,
Damien Mouly,
J C Desenclos,
Benjamín Roche
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
plos neglected tropical diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.99
H-Index - 135
eISSN - 1935-2735
pISSN - 1935-2727
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010244
Subject(s) - chikungunya , transmission (telecommunications) , outbreak , context (archaeology) , public health , arbovirus , vector (molecular biology) , aedes , environmental health , zika virus , virology , geography , biology , virus , computer science , medicine , dengue fever , telecommunications , archaeology , recombinant dna , biochemistry , nursing , gene
Background Viruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes have greatly expanded their geographic range in recent decades. They are considered emerging public health threats throughout the world, including Europe. Therefore, public health authorities must be prepared by quantifying the potential magnitude of virus transmission and the effectiveness of interventions. Methodology We developed a mathematical model with a vector-host structure for chikungunya virus transmission and estimated model parameters from epidemiological data of the two main autochthonous chikungunya virus transmission events that occurred in Southern France, in Montpellier (2014) and in Le Cannet-des-Maures (2017). We then performed simulations of the model using these estimates to forecast the magnitude of the foci of transmission as a function of the response delay and the moment of virus introduction. Conclusions The results of the different simulations underline the relative importance of each variable and can be useful to stakeholders when designing context-based intervention strategies. The findings emphasize the importance of, and advocate for early detection of imported cases and timely biological confirmation of autochthonous cases to ensure timely vector control measures, supporting the implementation and the maintenance of sustainable surveillance systems.