Open AccessLong-range movements coupled with heterogeneous incubation period sustain dog rabies at the national scale in Africa
Author(s) -
Davide Colombi,
Chiara Poletto,
Emmanuel Nakouné,
Hervé Bourhy,
Vittoria Colizza
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
plos neglected tropical diseases
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.99
H-Index - 135
eISSN - 1935-2735
pISSN - 1935-2727
DOI - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008317
Subject(s) - rabies , metapopulation , wildlife , geography , lyssavirus , population , range (aeronautics) , human settlement , rabies virus , persistence (discontinuity) , vaccination , socioeconomics , biology , demography , environmental health , ecology , virology , medicine , rhabdoviridae , economics , materials science , composite material , biological dispersal , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , sociology , engineering
Dog-transmitted rabies is responsible for more than 98% of human cases worldwide, remaining a persistent problem in developing countries. Mass vaccination targets predominantly major cities, often compromising disease control due to re-introductions. Previous work suggested that areas neighboring cities may behave as the source of these re-introductions. To evaluate this hypothesis, we introduce a spatially explicit metapopulation model for rabies diffusion in Central African Republic. Calibrated on epidemiological data for the capital city, Bangui, the model predicts that long-range movements are essential for continuous re-introductions of rabies-exposed dogs across settlements, eased by the large fluctuations of the incubation period. Bangui’s neighborhood, instead, would not be enough to self-sustain the epidemic, contrary to previous expectations. Our findings suggest that restricting long-range travels may be very efficient in limiting rabies persistence in a large and fragmented dog population. Our framework can be applied to other geographical contexts where dog rabies is endemic.