Open AccessReal Time Forecasting of Measles Using Generation-dependent Mathematical Model in Japan, 2018
Author(s) -
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,
Hyojung Lee,
Sung-mok Jung,
Ryô Kinoshita,
Kazuki Shimizu,
Keita Yoshii,
Hiroshi Nishiura
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
plos currents
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.282
H-Index - 49
ISSN - 2157-3999
DOI - 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3cc277d133e2d6078912800748dbb492
Subject(s) - measles , basic reproduction number , transmission (telecommunications) , outbreak , medicine , generation time , incidence (geometry) , epidemiology , psychological intervention , variance (accounting) , computer science , statistics , demography , environmental health , vaccination , immunology , virology , mathematics , population , telecommunications , business , geometry , accounting , psychiatry , sociology
Japan experienced a multi-generation outbreak of measles from March to May, 2018. The present study aimed to capture the transmission dynamics of measles by employing a simple mathematical model, and also forecast the future incidence of cases.