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Screening offenders for risk of drop‐out and expulsion from correctional programmes
Author(s) -
Nunes Kevin L.,
Cortoni Franca,
Serin Ralph C.
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
legal and criminological psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.65
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 2044-8333
pISSN - 1355-3259
DOI - 10.1348/135532508x401887
Subject(s) - recidivism , univariate , drop out , psychology , receiver operating characteristic , sample (material) , multivariate analysis , clinical psychology , multivariate statistics , medicine , statistics , mathematics , chemistry , chromatography , economics , demographic economics
Purpose. The goal of the present research was to develop a screening measure to assist in identifying offenders at risk for drop‐out or expulsion from correctional programmes. Methods. Non‐Aboriginal male offenders ( N = 5,247) were randomly divided into a development sample ( N = 2,617) and a validation sample ( N = 2,630). In the development sample, individual predictors were identified through univariate and multivariate analyses, weighted based on their relationship with drop‐out/expulsion, and combined into a composite measure we called the drop‐out risk screen (DRS). Results. The DRS consists of five items, including static and dynamic risk factors for recidivism as well as motivation for intervention. It significantly predicted drop‐out/expulsion in the development sample (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]= .72) and performed similarly in the validation sample (AUC = .70). Conclusions. The results indicate that the DRS is a valid screening instrument for risk of drop‐out/expulsion. Prior to commencement of a treatment programme, offenders with high scores on the DRS could be more thoroughly assessed and, if necessary, targeted with pre‐treatment efforts to increase their motivation and general readiness for treatment.