Open AccessAssessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios
Author(s) -
Priscila Esposte Coutinho,
Márcio Cataldi
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
engenharia na agricultura
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2175-6813
pISSN - 1414-3984
DOI - 10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641
Subject(s) - climate change , precipitation , environmental science , drainage basin , structural basin , climate model , representative concentration pathways , climatology , water cycle , hydrology (agriculture) , water resource management , geography , meteorology , geology , ecology , paleontology , oceanography , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology
In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.