Open AccessModel Penyebaran Penyakit SIR Tipe Rantai Binomial dengan Kontak Random dan Waktu Penyembuhan Bernilai Tak Hingga
Author(s) -
Ilham Asyifa Maulana Rosyid,
Respatiwulan Respatiwulan,
Sri Handajani
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
indonesian journal of applied statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2621-086X
DOI - 10.13057/ijas.v3i2.44307
Subject(s) - probability model , epidemic model , negative binomial distribution , transmission (telecommunications) , mathematics , binomial distribution , statistics , medicine , computer science , population , poisson distribution , telecommunications , environmental health
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model is an epidemic model that illustrates the pattern of disease spread with the characteristics of individuals who have recovered cannot be re-infected and have a permanent immune system. The binomial chain type epidemic model assumes that infection spreads in discrete time units and the number of the infected individuals follows a binomial distribution. This research aims to discuss binomial chain type SIR epidemic model by simulating the model. The transition probability depends on the number of infected individuals in the period the number of individuals encountered, and the transmission probability. This model also assumes an infinite recovery time ( = ∞). This situation illustrates that infected individuals remain contagious during the period of spread of the disease. This situation can arise when the causative agent of the disease has a long life. Then simulations are performed by giving different transmission probability The results show that the greater transmission probability will cause the probability of a new individual being infected in the next period to be greater. Keywords : SIR epidemic model, binomial chain, infinite recovery time