Open AccessInter-Election Vote Swings for the Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact of Economic Performance and Other Factors
Author(s) -
Ali T. Akarca
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
equilibrium
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2353-3293
pISSN - 1689-765X
DOI - 10.12775/equil2011.017
Subject(s) - turkish , voting , politics , political science , spoilt vote , political economy , economics , single non transferable vote , primary election , group voting ticket , general election , public administration , law , democracy , philosophy , linguistics
Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party inTurkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors. For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used. The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties.