MULTI-PARAMETRIC FORECASTING AND RELATIVE ADVANTAGES OF WHEAT CROP PRODUCTION IN THE REGION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

The paper proposes a model for determining the relative advantage and forecasting the contribution to total production and reducing the deficit at the regional level, based on data and economic indicators for the period from 1995 to 2015. The main objective of this work is to predict future production trends in the regions, which are presented in order to improve land management, productivity, reduce agricultural waste and create a strategic stock of wheat to solve local supply problems. The study uses descriptive and statistical data analysis methods to achieve research objectives. Using linear trend analysis, growth rates of acreage, productivity, production and consumption of basic food crops are estimated. Using the adjusted coefficients of variation, that were proposed by Cuddy-Della Valle. The food problem is seen as an important strategic issue, that attracts close attention at all levels. Its importance stems from the political and social and economic aspects. The study is based on data from the Egyptian regions and has a strong regional focus. Geographically, Egypt is divided into four regions (areas of wheat cultivation). In this regard, we propose a conceptual approach to the study of the balance of regional production of food wheat within the framework of factors, affecting the food security of the regions (Figure 1). These stages are logically related to each other, since it is impossible to determine the prospects for the development of the domestic wheat market without analyzing its development within a certain retrospective period. Both of these stages imply a deep study of the wheat market, both on the basis of qualitative analysis methods and using quantitative analysis methods that make it possible to develop management decisions to ensure its balance.