Open AccessSIMULATION OF TIME SERIES FOR WHEAT PRODUCTION AND A SHARE OF A SELF-DYNAMIC RATE IN THE FUTURE: DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL FORECASTING
Author(s) -
Mostafa M. Negm,
Mostafa M. Negm
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
vestnik kazanskogo gosudarstvennogo agrarnogo universiteta
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 2073-0462
DOI - 10.12737/article_5b350b4811b4d2.87309873
Subject(s) - exponential smoothing , production (economics) , exponential function , consumption (sociology) , econometrics , productivity , food security , time series , agricultural engineering , computer science , operations research , agriculture , mathematics , economics , statistics , engineering , mathematical analysis , social science , ecology , sociology , biology , macroeconomics
The article proposes a time series model for forecasting the annual production and consumption of wheat in Egypt, based on data and economic indicators for the period from 1995 to 2015. The main objective of this work is to predict future trends in wheat production and consumption and use several prediction methods to analyze the development of the industry in Egypt until 2030. The study was conducted to select a suitable model for predicting these processes among three methods that depend on the values of three accuracy measures (MAPE, MAD and MSD) using the moving average model, the exponential smoothing model and the double exponential model. As a result, it was revealed that the double exponential model is the most suitable model for forecasting the future trend of wheat production and consumption due to smaller values of prediction errors. Recommendations were also formulated to improve food security until 2030, which are presented in order to improve land management and productivity, reduce agricultural waste and create a strategic wheat stock to address local supply problems.