Open AccessFlight Safety Challenges and Assessment
Author(s) -
M. G. Popov,
Yuriy Popov
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
bezopasnostʹ v tehnosfere
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1998-071X
DOI - 10.12737/4837
Subject(s) - weibull distribution , statistics , flight safety , air transport , interval (graph theory) , environmental science , confidence interval , engineering , mathematics , aeronautics , combinatorics
The article analyses air transport system and presents reasons of air incidents and flight safety estimation score. Dependence
of air accidents amount per 100 000 flight hours is compared to typical time dependent behavior of failure rate and divided
into three intervals. The intervals are analyzed and the reasons of change of parameter score are submitted. Statistical
characteristics of the number of accidents per interval parameter are provided. Parameter of air accidents per year matches
the Weibull distribution; estimations of Weibull distribution parameters are submitted. Probability of accidents is calculated
for each interval; obtained results are analyzed. Ways for furthering flight safety and air transport system are suggested.