Open AccessA Method of Predicting Risk of Natural Emergencies on Road Network
Author(s) -
Трофименко,
Yuri Trofimenko,
Якубович,
A. N. Yakubovich
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
bezopasnostʹ v tehnosfere
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 1998-071X
DOI - 10.12737/11336
Subject(s) - scale (ratio) , emergency response , computer science , natural disaster , variable (mathematics) , process (computing) , natural (archaeology) , random variable , transport engineering , risk analysis (engineering) , engineering , statistics , geography , business , mathematics , cartography , meteorology , medical emergency , archaeology , medicine , mathematical analysis , operating system
The main difficulty of describing natural emergency as a random process is the large number of parameters that must be quantified. Authors suggest threating the onset of emergency as a discrete random variable; each possible implementation corresponds to the defined size of the expected damage to transportation infrastructure. The analysis of the engineering and environmental surveys via geo-information technologies identified expected probability of occurrence and scale of the annual damage for 10 types of emergency situations on long-term (up to 2030) for State Company Russian Highways road network.