Open AccessMathematical analysis on the dynamics of COVID-19 in India using SIR Epidemic Model
Author(s) -
MA Khanday,
F Zargar
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
mapana journal of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
ISSN - 0975-3303
DOI - 10.12723/mjs.54.1
Subject(s) - outbreak , epidemic model , transmission (telecommunications) , population , mortality rate , ordinary differential equation , covid-19 , virology , communicable disease , infection rate , disease , demography , statistics , medicine , mathematics , computer science , differential equation , environmental health , infectious disease (medical specialty) , public health , telecommunications , mathematical analysis , pathology , surgery , sociology , nursing
The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak as on 9th July 2020 has invaded around 12.3 million population causing over half a million deaths worldwide and counting. The entire scientific community has joined hands to find a vaccine for this deadly virus that causes the respiratory illness, COVID-19 in humans. To understand the dynamics of this communicable disease and its transmission among the people in India, a mathematical model governed by ordinary differential equations with ap- propriate conditions has been established. The model is based on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) scheme to understand the behavior of susceptible, infective and removed (both recovered and deceased) population in India. The resulting model equations have been simulated using MATLAB software. The results obtained in this model were interpreted graphically and least squares method was used to predict the transmission rate, recovery rate and mortality rate in the absence of any vaccine/immunization.