Open AccessA method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation
Author(s) -
B. C. Papazachos,
G. F. Karakaisis,
C. B. Papazachos,
E. M. Scordilis,
Alexandros Savvaidis
Publication year - 2001
Publication title -
deltio tīs ellīnikīs geōlogikīs etaireias/deltio tīs ellīnikīs geōlogikīs etaireias
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2529-1718
pISSN - 0438-9557
DOI - 10.12681/bgsg.18118
Subject(s) - seismology , geology , deformation (meteorology) , excitation , physics , oceanography , quantum mechanics
Observations on accelerating crustal deformation due to the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in the Aegean area are used to propose a method for prediction of the origin time of an ensuing mainshock. The method is based on a precursory seismic excitation that occurs in the preshock region at a time correlated to the origin time of the oncoming mainshock. The uncertainty in this prediction is of the order of ± 1.5 years with relatively high confidence ('90%).