A method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation | Zendy

B. C. Papazachos | Zendy; G. F. Karakaisis | Zendy; C. B. Papazachos | Zendy; E. M. Scordilis | Zendy; Alexandros Savvaidis | Zendy

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A method for estimating the origin time of an ensuing mainshock by observations of preshock crustal seismic deformation

Author(s) -

B. C. Papazachos,

G. F. Karakaisis,

C. B. Papazachos,

E. M. Scordilis,

Alexandros Savvaidis

Publication year - 2001

Publication title -

bulletin of the geological society of greece

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

eISSN - 2529-1718

pISSN - 0438-9557

DOI - 10.12681/bgsg.18118

Subject(s) - seismology , geology , deformation (meteorology) , excitation , physics , oceanography , quantum mechanics

Observations on accelerating crustal deformation due to the generation of intermediate magnitude preshocks in the Aegean area are used to propose a method for prediction of the origin time of an ensuing mainshock. The method is based on a precursory seismic excitation that occurs in the preshock region at a time correlated to the origin time of the oncoming mainshock. The uncertainty in this prediction is of the order of ± 1.5 years with relatively high confidence ('90%).

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