Open AccessMODELING THE SEISMICITY OF CENTRAL IONIAN ISLANDS WITH SEMI-MARKOV MODELS
Author(s) -
Christina Elisavet Pertsinidou,
George Tsaklidis,
Nikolaos Limnios,
Eleftheria Papadimitriou
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
deltio tīs ellīnikīs geōlogikīs etaireias/deltio tīs ellīnikīs geōlogikīs etaireias
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2529-1718
pISSN - 0438-9557
DOI - 10.12681/bgsg.11853
Subject(s) - geology , induced seismicity , magnitude (astronomy) , seismology , seismic hazard , markov chain , generalized pareto distribution , earthquake magnitude , mathematics , statistics , extreme value theory , geometry , physics , astronomy , scaling
Earthquakes with M ≥ 5.2 that occurred in the area of central Ionian Islands (1911- 2014) are assumed to form a semi-Markov chain, aiming to contribute in the field of seismic hazard assessment. The sojourn times are considered to be geometric or approximated by Pareto distributions. Destination probabilities are examined and the results demonstrate that in many cases these probabilities become higher adequately forecasting the magnitude class of an anticipated earthquake. The geometrically distributed model can also reveal the more probable occurrence time of the next earthquake since for this model the destination probabilities were found to obtain many times their maximum values for the real occurrence time. The successful forecasting as for the occurrence time is 63.75% for all earthquakes and becomes 71.42% for the larger magnitude events (M ≥ 6.0).