O risco visto a posteriori e o risco imputado a priori nos contratos de um banco de desenvolvimento

The article deals with two subjects rarely intersecting in theliterature: risk of default and development banks. As risk management iscritical to maximizing profit in commercial banks, there are many analyzesof this type. But perhaps because the development banks have indirect rolein the financial system, there are few studies with this specificity. But acareless risk management in such banks may compromise the strategicfinancing of entire regions and sectors. In this sense, the researchobtained unprecedented access to microdata of contracts of a Braziliandevelopment bank. After estimating probabilities of default (PD) amongborrower profiles, the study contrasts the risk ratings attributed a priori.It is observed indications of distortions in the ratings of someentrepreneurial profiles, and a consequent dilemma: to correct this theinstitution would take more exiguous contracts, contrary to the purpose ofthe bank.