Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation | Zendy

Daron Acemoğlu | Zendy; Pascual Restrepo | Zendy

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Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation

Author(s) -

Daron Acemoğlu,

Pascual Restrepo

Publication year - 2017

Publication title -

american economic review

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 16.936

H-Index - 297

eISSN - 1944-7981

pISSN - 0002-8282

DOI - 10.1257/aer.p20171101

Subject(s) - counterintuitive , economic stagnation , economics , productivity , investment (military) , population ageing , argument (complex analysis) , technological change , labour economics , development economics , demographic economics , population , macroeconomics , sociology , political science , demography , medicine , philosophy , epistemology , politics , law

Several recent theories emphasize the negative effects of an aging population on economic growth, either because of the lower labor force participation and productivity of older workers or because aging will create an excess of savings over desired investment, leading to secular stagnation. We show that there is no such negative relationship in the data. If anything, countries experiencing more rapid aging have grown more in recent decades. We suggest that this counterintuitive finding might reflect the more rapid adoption of automation technologies in countries undergoing more pronounced demographic changes, and provide evidence and theoretical underpinnings for this argument.

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