Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation | Zendy

David Anthoff | Zendy; Francisco Estrada | Zendy; Richard S.J. Tol | Zendy

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Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation

Author(s) -

David Anthoff,

Francisco Estrada,

Richard S.J. Tol

Publication year - 2016

Publication title -

american economic review

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 16.936

H-Index - 297

eISSN - 1944-7981

pISSN - 0002-8282

DOI - 10.1257/aer.p20161102

Subject(s) - thermohaline circulation , slowdown , circulation (fluid dynamics) , economics , greenhouse gas , welfare , climate change , environmental science , climatology , natural resource economics , economic slowdown , global warming , macroeconomics , ecology , physics , economic growth , geology , mechanics , biology , market economy

Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model FUND and a meta-analysis of climate impacts are used to evaluate the change in human welfare. We find modest but by and large positive effects on human welfare since a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation implies decelerated warming.

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