From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth

This paper examines the historical evolution of the relationship among population growth, technological change, and the standard of liv- ing. It considers several unified models that encompass the transition between three dis- tinct regimes that have characterized the process of economic development: the ''Mal- thusian Regime,'' the ''Post-Malthusian Re- gime,'' and the ''Modern Growth Regime.'' We view the unified modeling of this long transition process, from thousands of years of Malthusian stagnation through the demo- graphic transition to modern growth, as one of the most significant research challenges fac- ing economists interested in growth and development. 1 The analysis focuses on the two most im- portant differences between these regimes from a macroeconomic viewpoint: first, in the behavior of income per capita, and second, in the relationship between the level of income per capita and the growth rate of population. The Modern Growth Regime is characterized by steady growth in both income per capita and the level of technology. In this regime there is a negative relationship between the level of output and the growth rate of popu- lation. At the other end of the spectrum is the Malthusian Regime where technological pro- gress and population growth were glacial by modern standards, and income per capita was roughly constant. Further, the relationship be- tween income per capita and population growth was positive. The Post-Malthusian Re- gime, which fell between the two just de- scribed, shared one characteristic with each of them. Income per capita grew during this pe-