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A simple prediction model of hurricane intensity
Author(s) -
Shen Weixing
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1256/qj.04.109
Subject(s) - intensity (physics) , environmental science , meteorology , scale (ratio) , simple (philosophy) , track (disk drive) , climatology , atmospheric sciences , computer science , geology , geography , physics , philosophy , cartography , epistemology , quantum mechanics , operating system
A simple model to predict hurricane intensity based on energetics is described and tested. It is assumed that future hurricane intensity is solely determined by the large‐scale environmental conditions and the present state of the hurricane, implying that subscale processes, if important, are strongly conditioned by the environment. It is also assumed that the hurricane track and the large‐scale environmental conditions that are used as inputs to the intensity model can be reasonably predicted by comprehensive numerical models. A series of runs starting from different times are performed. The results by the model are fairly consistent with observations. The intensity sensitivity to various factors and parameters used in the model is also discussed. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society