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A probabilistic description of convective mass fluxes and its relationship to extreme‐value theory
Author(s) -
Naveau P.,
Moncrieff M. W.
Publication year - 2003
Publication title -
quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.744
H-Index - 143
eISSN - 1477-870X
pISSN - 0035-9009
DOI - 10.1256/qj.01.124
Subject(s) - parametrization (atmospheric modeling) , squall line , mass flux , convection , meteorology , mesoscale meteorology , probabilistic logic , extreme value theory , environmental science , flux (metallurgy) , atmospheric sciences , statistical physics , mathematics , physics , mechanics , statistics , radiative transfer , materials science , quantum mechanics , metallurgy
The vertical flux of mass by atmospheric convection, and convective cloud systems in particular, is a key quantity used in parametrization schemes for numerical weather‐prediction models and climate models. The concept of formulating mass fluxes in terms of statistical quantities is discussed and a probabilistic description of the upward mass fluxes, based on extreme‐value theory, is presented. This approach is illustrated by a statistical analysis of two‐dimensional, numerical realizations of two regimes of tropical convection, namely squall lines and non‐squall clusters. Our statistical model allows these distinct cloud systems, which play a key role in determining the shape of the mass‐flux profile, to be efficiently integrated. Also taken into account is the distinction between mesoscale and convective components of the mass flux. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.