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A Source of Bayesian Priors
Author(s) -
Osherson Daniel,
Smith Edward E.,
Shafir Eldar,
Gualtierotti Antoine,
Biolsi Kevin
Publication year - 1995
Publication title -
cognitive science
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.498
H-Index - 114
eISSN - 1551-6709
pISSN - 0364-0213
DOI - 10.1207/s15516709cog1903_4
Subject(s) - prior probability , probabilistic logic , axiom , computer science , bayesian probability , probability distribution , obstacle , artificial intelligence , machine learning , mathematics , statistics , geometry , political science , law
Establishing reasonable, prior distributions remains a significant obstacle for the construction of probabilistic expert systems. Human assessment of chance is often relied upon for this purpose, but this has the drawback of being inconsistent with axioms of probability. This article advances a method for extracting a coherent distribution of probability from human judgment. The method is based on a psychological model of probabilistic reasoning, followed by a correction phase using linear programming.