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Anticipating Demand for Emergency Health Services due to Medication‐related Adverse Events after Rapid Mass Prophylaxis Campaigns
Author(s) -
Hupert Nathaniel,
Wattson Daniel,
Cuomo Jason,
Benson Samuel
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
academic emergency medicine
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.221
H-Index - 124
eISSN - 1553-2712
pISSN - 1069-6563
DOI - 10.1197/j.aem.2006.08.017
Subject(s) - medicine , chemoprophylaxis , adverse effect , emergency medicine , vaccination , mass vaccination , names of the days of the week , outbreak , medical emergency , emergency department , environmental health , pediatrics , immunology , virology , linguistics , philosophy , psychiatry
Objectives: Mass prophylaxis against infectious disease outbreaks carries the risk of medication‐related adverse events (MRAEs). The authors sought to define the relationship between the rapidity of mass prophylaxis dispensing and the subsequent demand for emergency health services due to predictable MRAEs. Methods: The authors created a spreadsheet‐based computer model that calculates scenario‐specific predicted daily MRAE rates from user inputs by applying a probability distribution to the reported timing of MRAEs. A hypothetical two‐ to ten‐day prophylaxis campaign for one million people using recent data from both smallpox vaccination and anthrax chemoprophylaxis campaigns was modeled. Results: The length of a mass prophylaxis campaign plays an important role in determining the subsequent intensity in emergency services utilization due to real or suspected adverse events. A two‐day smallpox vaccination scenario would produce an estimated 32,000 medical encounters and 1,960 hospitalizations, peaking at 5,246 health care encounters six days after the start of the campaign; in contrast, a ten‐day campaign would lead to 41% lower peak surge, with a maximum of 3,106 encounters on the busiest day, ten days after initiation of the campaign. MRAEs with longer lead times, such as those associated with anthrax chemoprophylaxis, exhibit less variability based on campaign length (e.g., 124 out of an estimated 1,400 hospitalizations on day 20 after a two‐day campaign versus 103 on day 24 after a ten‐day campaign). Conclusions: The duration of a mass prophylaxis campaign may have a substantial impact on the timing and peak number of clinically significant MRAEs, with very short campaigns overwhelming existing emergency department (ED) capacity to treat real or suspected medication‐related injuries. While better reporting of both incidence and timing of MRAEs in future prophylaxis campaigns should improve the application of this model to community‐based emergency preparedness planning, these results highlight the need for coordination between public health and emergency medicine planning for infectious disease outbreaks to avoid preventable surges in ED utilization.