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Linguistic Uncertainty in Qualitative Risk Analysis and How to Minimize It
Author(s) -
Carey Janet M.,
Burgman Mark A.
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
annals of the new york academy of sciences
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.712
H-Index - 248
eISSN - 1749-6632
pISSN - 0077-8923
DOI - 10.1196/annals.1399.003
Subject(s) - uncertainty reduction theory , ranking (information retrieval) , stakeholder , process (computing) , risk assessment , computer science , linguistics , face (sociological concept) , uncertainty analysis , risk analysis (engineering) , psychology , natural language processing , artificial intelligence , social psychology , business , political science , public relations , philosophy , computer security , simulation , operating system
Most risk assessments assume uncertainty may be decomposed into variability and incertitude. Language is often overlooked as a source of uncertainty, but linguistic uncertainty may be pervasive in workshops, committees, and other face‐to‐face language‐based settings where it can result in misunderstanding and arbitrary disagreement. Here we present examples of linguistic uncertainty drawn from qualitative risk analysis undertaken in stakeholder workshops and describe how the uncertainties were treated. We used a process of iterative re‐assessment of likelihoods and consequences, interspersed with facilitated discussion, to assist in the reduction of language‐based uncertainty. The effects of this process were evident as changes in the level of agreement among groups of assessors in the ranking of hazards.