Open AccessSeasonal variation in notified tuberculosis cases from 2014 to 2018 in eastern China
Author(s) -
Yishu Li,
Limei Zhu,
Wei Lü,
Chen Cheng,
Haitao Yang
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of international medical research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.421
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1473-2300
pISSN - 0300-0605
DOI - 10.1177/0300060520949031
Subject(s) - incidence (geometry) , medicine , seasonality , tuberculosis , demography , transmission (telecommunications) , veterinary medicine , statistics , pathology , physics , optics , electrical engineering , sociology , engineering , mathematics
Objective Tuberculosis (TB) incidence shows a seasonal trend. The purpose of this study was to explore seasonal trends in TB cases in Jiangsu Province.Methods TB case data were collected from the TB registration system from 2014 to 2018. The X12-ARIMA model was used to adjust the Jiangsu TB time series. Analysis of variance was used to compare TB seasonal amplitude (SA) between subgroups and identify factors responsible for seasonal variation.Results The TB incidence in Jiangsu showed a seasonal trend. Confirmed active TB peaked in March and reached a minimum in February. The amplitude of the peak-to-bottom difference was 38.15%. The SAs in individuals 7 to 17 years old (80.00%) and students (71.80%) were significantly different than those in other subgroups. Among bacterial culture positive individuals, the SAs among female patients, individuals aged 7 to 17 years and students were significantly different from those in the reference group. Among culture-negative patients, the SA among individuals aged 7 to 17 years was significantly different those in other subgroups.Conclusions The TB incidence in Jiangsu Province displayed a seasonal trend. Factors related to seasonal variation were age and occupation. Our results highlight the importance of controlling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission during winter.