Open AccessMortality statistics in England and Wales: the SARS-CoV-2 paradox
Author(s) -
G. L. Abby Harrison,
Daniel Newport,
Tim Robbins,
Theodoros N. Arvanitis,
Andrew Stein
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
journal of international medical research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.421
H-Index - 57
eISSN - 1473-2300
pISSN - 0300-0605
DOI - 10.1177/0300060520931298
Subject(s) - pandemic , medicine , demography , mortality rate , covid-19 , disease , surgery , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology
Objective To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality.Methods Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates.Results During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the “SARS-CoV-2 paradox.” We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data.Conclusions Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.