Effects of Cumulative Context and Guessing Methods On Estimates of Transition Probability in Speech

This study investigated the effects of cumulative context and of various guessing methods on transition probability estimates derived from the same speech materials. Transition probability estimates obtained from the single-guess and continuous-guessing methods were highly correlated and yielded similar distributions of scores for both isolated and cumulative context material. Forward and backward guessing methods yielded uncorrelated sets of predictability scores, the distributions of which were significantly different. Cloze procedure predictability scores were highly correlated with forward guessing and combined forward-backward guessing results, but were significantly higher in magnitude. Implications of the effects of procedural differences for future investigations are discussed.