Open AccessEffects of Rainfall on Vehicle Crashes in Six U.S. States
Author(s) -
Alan W. Black,
Gabriele Villarini,
Xavier Fettweis
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
weather, climate, and society
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.014
H-Index - 35
eISSN - 1948-8335
pISSN - 1948-8327
DOI - 10.1175/wcas-d-16-0035.1
Subject(s) - crash , relative risk , environmental science , precipitation , hazard , geography , motor vehicle crash , demography , poison control , injury prevention , meteorology , environmental health , medicine , statistics , mathematics , confidence interval , biology , sociology , computer science , programming language , ecology
Rainfall is one of many types of weather hazard that can lead to motor vehicle crashes. To better understand the link between rainfall and crash rates, daily gridded precipitation data and automobile crash data are gathered for six U.S. states (Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Ohio) for the period 1996–2010. A matched pair analysis is used to pair rainfall days with dry days to determine the relative risk of crash, injury, and fatality. Overall, there is a statistically significant increase in crash and injury rates during rainfall days of 10% and 8%, respectively, leading to an additional 28 000 crashes and 12 000 injuries in the 1 May–30 September period each year relative to what would be expected if those days were dry. The risk of crashes and injuries increases for increasing daily rainfall totals, with an overall increase in crashes and injuries of 51% and 38% during days with more than 50 mm (2 in.) of rainfall. While urban counties and rural counties with and without interstates each saw increased crash risk during rainfall, urban counties saw the most significant increases in relative risk. There are a number of exceptions to these broad spatial patterns, indicating that relative risk varies in ways that are not explained solely by meteorological factors.