Open AccessAn Integrated Approach to Mid- and Upper-Level Turbulence Forecasting
Author(s) -
Robert Sharman,
Claudia Tebaldi,
Gerry Wiener,
Jamie K. Wolff
Publication year - 2006
Publication title -
weather and forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.393
H-Index - 106
eISSN - 1520-0434
pISSN - 0882-8156
DOI - 10.1175/waf924.1
Subject(s) - turbulence , weighting , clear air turbulence , k epsilon turbulence model , turbulence modeling , computer science , k omega turbulence model , meteorology , physics , acoustics
An automated procedure for forecasting mid- and upper-level turbulence that affects aircraft is described. This procedure, termed the Graphical Turbulence Guidance system, uses output from numerical weather prediction model forecasts to derive many turbulence diagnostics that are combined as a weighted sum with the relative weights computed to give best agreement with the most recent available turbulence observations (i.e., pilot reports of turbulence or PIREPs). This procedure minimizes forecast errors due to uncertainties in individual turbulence diagnostics and their thresholds. Thorough statistical verification studies have been performed that focused on the probabilities of correct detections of yes and no PIREPs by the forecast algorithm. Using these statistics as a guide, the authors have been able to intercompare individual diagnostic performance, and test various diagnostic threshold and weighting strategies. The overall performance of the turbulence forecast and the effect of these strategies on performance are described.