Open AccessCommunication of Uncertainty in Temperature Forecasts
Author(s) -
Pricilla Marimo,
Todd R. Kaplan,
Ken Mylne,
Martin Sharpe
Publication year - 2015
Publication title -
weather and forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.393
H-Index - 106
eISSN - 1520-0434
pISSN - 0882-8156
DOI - 10.1175/waf-d-14-00016.1
Subject(s) - outcome (game theory) , bar chart , set (abstract data type) , computer science , graph , statistics , econometrics , mathematics , theoretical computer science , mathematical economics , programming language
Experimental economics is used to test whether undergraduate students presented with a temperature forecast with uncertainty information in a table and bar graph format were able to use the extra information to interpret a given forecast. Participants were asked to choose the most probable temperature-based outcome between a set of “lotteries.” Both formats with uncertainty information were found on average to significantly increase the probability of choosing the correct outcome. However, in some cases providing uncertainty information was damaging. Factors that influence understanding are statistically determined. Furthermore, participants who were shown the graph with uncertainty information took on average less response time compared to those who were shown a table with uncertainty information. Over time, participants improve in speed and initially improve in accuracy of choosing the correct outcome.