Open AccessMonthly Average Temperature Modeling in an Intertropical Region
Author(s) -
Mercedes Andrade-Bejarano
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
weather and forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.393
H-Index - 106
eISSN - 1520-0434
pISSN - 0882-8156
DOI - 10.1175/waf-d-12-00077.1
Subject(s) - climatology , el niño southern oscillation , series (stratigraphy) , environmental science , southern oscillation , atmospheric sciences , geography , geology , paleontology
Data for this research come from time series of monthly average temperatures from 28 sites over the Valle del Cauca of Colombia in South America, collected over the period 1971–2002. Because of the geographical location of the study area, monthly average temperature is affected by altitude and El Niño–La Niña (El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO phenomenon). Time series for some of the sites show a tendency to increase. Also, because of the two dry and wet periods in the study area, a seasonal pattern of behavior in monthly average temperature is seen. Linear mixed models are formulated and fitted to account for within- and between-site variations. The ENSO phenomenon is modeled by the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and dummy variables. Spatial and temporal covariance structures in the errors are modeled individually using isotropic variogram models. The fitted models demonstrate the influence of the ENSO phenomenon on monthly average temperatures; this is seen in the maps produced from the models for ENSO and normal conditions. These maps show the predicted spatial patterns for differences in temperature throughout the study area.