Scientific Prerequisites to Comprehension of the Tropical Cyclone Forecast: Intensity, Track, and Size

The communication by forecasters of tropical cyclone (TC) descriptions and forecasts to user communities necessarily involves the transmission of information based in science to different classes of users composed primarily of nonscientists. Inherent in the problem is the necessity of translating or converting the scientific content of the forecast, including its associated uncertainty, which is mathematical and statistical in its native structure, into restructured content comprehensible to populations not generally schooled in those disciplines. The forecast interpretation problem encompasses not only the forms in which the information is presented or communicated (e.g., text versus graphics), but even more so the complexity and transparency of the scientific content contained between those forms. This article investigates the substantive areas of dissonance and disconnect between the scientific content of TC descriptions and forecasts, including the uncertainty, and the ability of end users to accurately comprehend and interpret the information. It centers on the three storm attributes for which there is a forecast, namely intensity, track, and size, within the context of existing research studies, public surveys, and original official documents that specifically provide insights into this subject matter. The results suggest that the TC descriptions and forecasts, once their scientific substance has been processed for the benefit of nonscientists, still require some preexisting scientific knowledge that may or may not be present among the different groups of nonspecialist users.