Open AccessModified NAM Microphysics for Forecasts of Deep Convective Storms
Author(s) -
Eric Aligo,
Brad S. Ferrier,
Jacob R. Carley
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
monthly weather review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.862
H-Index - 179
eISSN - 1520-0493
pISSN - 0027-0644
DOI - 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0277.1
Subject(s) - environmental science , mesoscale meteorology , convection , climatology , advection , meteorology , convective storm detection , mesoscale convective system , severe weather , numerical weather prediction , storm , atmospheric sciences , freezing rain , precipitation , geology , geography , physics , thermodynamics
The Ferrier–Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme has been running operationally in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) since August 2014. It was developed to improve forecasts of deep convection in the NAM contiguous United States (CONUS) nest, and it replaces previous versions of the NAM microphysics. The FA scheme is the culmination of extensive microphysical scheme sensitivity experiments made over nearly a dozen warm- and cool-season severe weather cases, as well as an extensive real-time testing in a full, system-wide developmental version of the NAM. While the FA scheme advects each hydrometeor species separately, it was the mass-weighted rime factor (RF) that allowed rimed ice to be advected to very cold temperatures aloft and improved the vertical structure of deep convection. Rimed ice fall speeds were reduced in order to offset an increase in bias of heavy precipitation as a consequence of the mass-weighted RF advection. The FA scheme also incorporated findings from 3-km model runs using the Thompson scheme, including 1) improved closure assumptions for large precipitating ice that targeted the convective and anvil regions of storms, 2) a new diagnostic calculation of radar reflectivity from rimed ice in association with intense convection, and 3) a variable rain intercept parameter that reduced widespread spurious weak reflectivity from shallow boundary layer clouds and increased stratiform rainfall.