Open AccessSkill of Medium-Range Hydrological Ensemble Predictions
Author(s) -
Emmanuel Roulin,
Stéphane Vannitsem
Publication year - 2005
Publication title -
journal of hydrometeorology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.733
H-Index - 123
eISSN - 1525-755X
pISSN - 1525-7541
DOI - 10.1175/jhm436.1
Subject(s) - precipitation , environmental science , streamflow , quantitative precipitation forecast , ensemble forecasting , climatology , probabilistic logic , meteorology , range (aeronautics) , water balance , forecast skill , probabilistic forecasting , flood forecasting , computer science , flood myth , drainage basin , geology , geography , materials science , cartography , geotechnical engineering , artificial intelligence , composite material , archaeology
A hydrological ensemble prediction system, integrating a water balance model with ensemble precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), is evaluated for two Belgian catchments. The skill of streamflow forecast for high flows is analyzed using a 6-yr period of archived EPS forecasts. The probabilistic skill of this hydrological prediction system is much better than the one based on historical precipitation inputs and extends beyond 9 days for both catchments. The skill is larger in winter than in summer. The use of this approach for operational forecasts is briefly discussed.