Open AccessDo Climate Models Capture the Tropical Influences on North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Variability?
Author(s) -
Fabian Lienert,
John C. Fyfe,
William J. Merryfield
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of climate
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.315
H-Index - 287
eISSN - 1520-0442
pISSN - 0894-8755
DOI - 10.1175/jcli-d-11-00205.1
Subject(s) - climatology , pacific decadal oscillation , forcing (mathematics) , sea surface temperature , mixed layer , environmental science , el niño southern oscillation , climate model , tropics , climate change , oceanography , geology , fishery , biology
This study evaluates the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed tropical influences on North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. In an ensemble of climate models, the study finds that the simulated North Pacific response to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is systematically delayed relative to the observed response because of winter and spring mixed layers in the North Pacific that are too deep and air–sea feedbacks that are too weak. Model biases in mixed layer depth and air–sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by about 30%. The study also shows that simulated North Pacific variability has more power at lower frequencies than is observed because of model errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. Implications of these results for predictions on seasonal, decadal, and longer time scales are discussed.