The Simulated Structure and Evolution of a Quasi-Idealized Warm-Season Convective System with a Training Convective Line

This study details the development and use of an idealized modeling framework to simulate a quasi-stationary heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective system (MCS). A 36-h composite progression of atmospheric fields computed from 26 observed warm-season heavy-rain-producing training line/adjoining stratiform (TL/AS) MCSs was used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for a numerical simulation of this MCS archetype. A realistic TL/AS MCS initiated and evolved within a simulated mesoscale environment that featured a low-level jet terminus, maximized low-level warm-air advection, and an elevated maximum in convective available potential energy. The first stage of MCS evolution featured an eastward-moving trailing-stratiform-type MCS that generated a surface cold pool. The initial system was followed by rearward off-boundary development, where a new line of convective cells simultaneously redeveloped north of the surface cold pool boundary. Backbuilding persisted on the western end of the new line, with individual convective cells training over a fixed geographic region. The final stage was characterized by a deepening and southward surge of the cold pool, accompanied by the weakening and slow southward movement of the training line. The low-level vertical wind shear profile favored kinematic lifting along the southeastern cold pool flank over the southwestern flank, potentially explaining why convection propagated with (did not propagate with) the former (latter) outflow boundaries. The morphological features of the simulated MCS are common among observed cases and may, therefore, be generalizable. These results suggest that they are emergent from fundamental features of the large-scale environment, such as persistent regional low-level lifting, and with the vertical environmental wind profile characteristic to TL/AS systems.