Open AccessProbability of Convectively Induced Turbulence Associated with Geostationary Satellite–Inferred Cloud-Top Cooling
Author(s) -
Sarah A. Monette,
Justin Sieglaff
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
journal of applied meteorology and climatology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.079
H-Index - 134
eISSN - 1558-8432
pISSN - 1558-8424
DOI - 10.1175/jamc-d-13-0174.1
Subject(s) - turbulence , geostationary orbit , meteorology , conditional probability , satellite , clear air turbulence , k epsilon turbulence model , probability density function , probability distribution , bayesian probability , physics , environmental science , statistics , mathematics , astronomy
The probability of turbulence in the region of identified cloud-top cooling (CTC) from a satellite-based algorithm is calculated. It is found that the overall turbulence probability is low, with only 3.93% of 738 Boeing 737s and 757s experiencing light or greater turbulence. Predicting the probability of turbulence is done using a Bayesian scheme. This prediction scheme relies on the CTC magnitude as well as the relationship between the CTC and aircraft. At higher CTC magnitudes [≤−16 K (15 min) −1 ], turbulence is more common, with the conditional probability of turbulence exceeding the conditional probability of no turbulence. Aircraft with flight levels that are less than 8000 ft (~2440 m) above the cloud height also have a higher conditional probability of turbulence than no turbulence. Overall, the Bayesian scheme is found to be more skillful when compared with use of climatological information alone.