Open AccessClimate Change Effects on Hydropower Potential in the Alcantara River Basin in Sicily (Italy)
Author(s) -
Giuseppe Tito Aronica,
Brunella Bonaccorso
Publication year - 2013
Publication title -
earth interactions
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.309
H-Index - 38
ISSN - 1087-3562
DOI - 10.1175/2012ei000508.1
Subject(s) - environmental science , hydropower , climate change , greenhouse gas , hadcm3 , streamflow , evapotranspiration , precipitation , climatology , baseflow , climate model , hydrograph , water resources , hydrology (agriculture) , drainage basin , meteorology , geology , general circulation model , gcm transcription factors , ecology , oceanography , physics , cartography , geotechnical engineering , engineering , electrical engineering , geography , biology
In recent years, increasing attention has been paid to hydropower generation, since it is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy, as well as an effective tool to reduce the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activities. At the same time, however, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to global warming, because water resources are closely linked to climate changes. Indeed, the effects of climate change on water availability are expected to affect hydropower generation with special reference to southern countries, which are supposed to face dryer conditions in the next decades. The aim of this paper is to qualitatively assess the impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime of the Alcantara River basin, eastern Sicily (Italy), based on Monte Carlo simulations. Synthetic series of daily rainfall and temperature are generated, based on observed data, through a first-order Markov chain and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, respectively, for the current scenario and two future scenarios at 2025. In particular, relative changes in the monthly mean and standard deviation values of daily rainfall and temperature at 2025, predicted by the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) for A2 and B2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, are adopted to generate future values of precipitation and temperature. Synthetic series for the two climatic scenarios are then introduced as input into the Identification of Unit Hydrographs and Component Flows from Rainfall, Evapotranspiration and Streamflow Data (IHACRES) model to simulate the hydrological response of the basin. The effects of climate change are investigated by analyzing potential modification of the resulting flow duration curves and utilization curves, which allow a site's energy potential for the design of run-of-river hydropower plants to be estimated.