Gulf Coast Residents Underestimate Hurricane Destructive Potential

Most people do not realize that hurricane destructiveness increases nonlinearly with increases in storm intensity. Three studies were conducted to examine people’s perceptions of hurricane destructive potential and their likelihood of evacuation. In the first study, undergraduate students (n = 349) provided damage ratings of hurricanes in each Saffir–Simpson category. A majority (84%) of students produced only linearly increasing damage profiles by hurricanes. In the second study, a simple random sample of Gulf Coast residents (n = 402) who participated in a telephone survey when a tropical storm was affecting the U.S. east coast revealed that a majority (77%) thought hurricane damages increased linearly with hurricane category and hence underestimated the damage major hurricanes could produce. In the third study, a simple random sample (n = 396) of Gulf Coast residents participated in an experiment over the telephone during an active phase of the 2008 hurricane season. One-half of the sample received information about the nonlinearly increasing damage potential of hurricanes; the other half received the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale category alone. The group in which hurricane damages were framed nonlinearly reported significantly greater self-reported likelihood of evacuation than residents who received the Saffir–Simpson hurricane category information. Studies 1 and 2 suggest that the public needs to learn more about the nonlinear relationship between hurricane intensity and the corresponding damages that may result. Study 3 suggests that framing possible storm damages in the nonlinearly increasing multiples of damages produced relative to a minimal hurricane may increase compliance with evacuation orders.