Open AccessThe Madden–Julian Oscillation and the Relative Value of Deterministic Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation in the Contiguous United States
Author(s) -
Charles Jones,
Leila M. V. Carvalho,
Jon Gottschalck,
W. Higgins
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
journal of climate
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.315
H-Index - 287
eISSN - 1520-0442
pISSN - 0894-8755
DOI - 10.1175/2011jcli-d-10-05002.1
Subject(s) - madden–julian oscillation , climatology , precipitation , northern hemisphere , environmental science , extreme value theory , indian ocean , southern hemisphere , oscillation (cell signaling) , climate model , convection , climate change , meteorology , geology , geography , mathematics , oceanography , statistics , biology , genetics
The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the most prominent form of tropical intraseasonal variability that impacts weather and climate. Forecast skill of extreme precipitation in the contiguous United States (CONUS) during winter is higher when the MJO is active and has enhanced convection over the Western Hemisphere, Africa, and/or the western Indian Ocean. This study applies a simple decision model to examine the relationships between the MJO and the relative value of deterministic forecasts of extreme precipitation. Value in the forecasts is significantly higher and extends to longer leads (2 weeks) during active MJO.