Open AccessConstraining the Sensitivity of Regional Climate with the Use of Historical Observations
Author(s) -
Apostolos Voulgarakis,
Drew Shindell
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
journal of climate
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.315
H-Index - 287
eISSN - 1520-0442
pISSN - 0894-8755
DOI - 10.1175/2010jcli3623.1
Subject(s) - climatology , climate sensitivity , forcing (mathematics) , radiative forcing , environmental science , climate model , sensitivity (control systems) , climate change , mean radiant temperature , constraint (computer aided design) , atmospheric sciences , mathematics , geology , oceanography , geometry , electronic engineering , engineering
A novel method is presented for calculating how sensitive regional climate is to radiative forcings, based on global surface temperature observations. Forcings that originate in both the region of interest and outside of it are taken into account. It is found that the transient temperature sensitivity parameter (β, defined as the observed temperature response per unit forcing) can be better constrained for 50°S–25°N than for the rest of the globe. The average β in this region is 0.35°C (W m−2)−1. The models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiment exhibit a β in this region that, on average, is higher by 35%. The results show that for 50°S–25°N β may provide a more valuable constraint for model evaluation than global mean climate sensitivity.