Open AccessHydrologic Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia
Author(s) -
Roland J. Viger,
Lauren Hay,
Steven L. Markstrom,
John W. Jones,
Gary R. Buell
Publication year - 2011
Publication title -
earth interactions
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.309
H-Index - 38
ISSN - 1087-3562
DOI - 10.1175/2010ei369.1
Subject(s) - streamflow , environmental science , surface runoff , precipitation , climate change , watershed , hydrology (agriculture) , land cover , urbanization , drainage basin , structural basin , hydrological modelling , current (fluid) , climate model , water resources , climatology , land use , geology , meteorology , geography , economic growth , ecology , oceanography , computer science , engineering , biology , paleontology , civil engineering , machine learning , cartography , geotechnical engineering , economics
The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface-runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.