Open AccessIncreasing Trend of Synoptic Activity and Its Relationship with Extreme Rain Events over Central India
Author(s) -
R. S. Ajayamohan,
William J. Merryfield,
Viatcheslav Kharin
Publication year - 2010
Publication title -
journal of climate
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 3.315
H-Index - 287
eISSN - 1520-0442
pISSN - 0894-8755
DOI - 10.1175/2009jcli2918.1
Subject(s) - climatology , synoptic scale meteorology , environmental science , atmospheric circulation , precipitation , geography , geology , meteorology
The nature of the increasing frequency of extreme rainfall events (ERE) in central India is investigated by relating their occurrence to synoptic activity. Using a long record of the paths and intensities of monsoon synoptic disturbances, a synoptic activity index (SAI) is defined whose interannual variation correlates strongly with that in the number of ERE, demonstrating a strong connection between these phenomena. SAI furthermore shows a rising trend that is statistically indistinguishable from that in ERE, indicating that the increasing frequency of ERE is likely attributable to a rising trend in synoptic activity. This synoptic activity increase results from a rising trend in relatively weak low pressure systems (LPS), and it outweighs a declining trend in stronger LPS.