Open AccessDynamical Extended-Range Prediction of Early Monsoon Rainfall over India
Author(s) -
Frédéric Vitart,
Franco Molteni
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
monthly weather review
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.862
H-Index - 179
eISSN - 1520-0493
pISSN - 0027-0644
DOI - 10.1175/2008mwr2761.1
Subject(s) - climatology , precipitation , forecast skill , environmental science , monsoon , horizontal resolution , meteorology , range (aeronautics) , sensitivity (control systems) , indian ocean , atmosphere (unit) , geology , geography , oceanography , materials science , electronic engineering , engineering , composite material
The 15-member ensembles of 46-day dynamical forecasts starting on each 15 May from 1991 to 2007 have been produced, using the ECMWF Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System monthly forecasting system (VarEPS-monthy). The dynamical model simulates a realistic interannual variability of Indian precipitation averaged over the month of June. It also displays some skill to predict Indian precipitation averaged over pentads up to a lead time of about 30 days. This skill exceeds the skill of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting System 3 starting on 1 June. Sensitivity experiments indicate that this is likely due to the higher horizontal resolution of VarEPS-monthly. Another series of sensitivity experiments suggests that the ocean–atmosphere coupling has an important impact on the skill of the monthly forecasting system to predict June rainfall over India.