Open AccessA Comparison of Two Tropical Cyclone Bogussing Schemes
Author(s) -
Dongliang Wang,
Xudong Liang,
Ying Zhao,
Bin Wang
Publication year - 2008
Publication title -
weather and forecasting
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.393
H-Index - 106
eISSN - 1520-0434
pISSN - 0882-8156
DOI - 10.1175/2007waf2006094.1
Subject(s) - mm5 , tropical cyclone , mesoscale meteorology , meteorology , data assimilation , cyclogenesis , environmental science , climatology , typhoon , numerical weather prediction , vortex , atmospheric model , track (disk drive) , weather research and forecasting model , atmospheric sciences , cyclone (programming language) , geology , computer science , physics , field programmable gate array , computer hardware , operating system
The impact of two bogussing schemes on tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts is compared. One scheme for bogussing TCs into the initial conditions of the nonhydrostatic version of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU–NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) is proposed by NCAR and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), and four-dimensional variational data assimilation technology is employed for the other bogus data assimilation (BDA) scheme. The initial vortex structure adjusted by the NCAR–AFWA (N–A) scheme is more physically realistic, while the BDA scheme produces an initial vortex structure that is more consistent with the model. The results from 41 forecasts of TCs occurring over the western North Pacific (WNP) in 2002 suggest that the adjustment of the initial structure in the BDA scheme produces a greater benefit to the subsequent track and intensity forecasts, and the improvements in the track and intensity forecasts are significant using the BDA scheme. It seems that when using a model with 45-km grid length, the N–A scheme has a negative impact on the track forecasts for the recurving TCs and on the intensity predictions after 24 h.